Monday, July 04, 2011

Arab demographic bomb a dud?

We are constantly hearing that the Arab population on the West Bank is so fertile that it threatens to create an Arab majority in the unit made up of "green-line" Israel and the West Bank. We hear also, from time to time, that it is not true. Here is an example of the view that the demographic sky is not falling:
Today, our leaders are . . . burdened with a concept that distorts their policy determinations, which they cannot overcome despite the empirical evidence shattering it.

This time the concept rests in the field of demography, namely that the Arab total fertility rate (TFR) is much higher than and even a multiple of the Jewish TFR.

The Institute for Zionist Strategies (IZS) has just published the latest in a series of studies by Yakov Faitelson on demographic developments. This study, available in full at www.izs.org.il and based on the empirical data of the Central Bureau of Statistics, shows that Jewish TFR is steadily rising, while the Arab TFR is plummeting. [...]
Whoever is right about the birthrates, there is always also the factor of people making aliyah. We don't know what the rate of aliyah is going to be in the future. The rest of the J-post article is worth reading.

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