One of the surprises, for me anyway, of yesterday's primary outcome was the extent that identity figured into the process. People were well aware of the identity factor for the Democrats. I will just note that women are a bigger "minority" than blacks and Hillary maintained parity with the more politically-adept Obama.
Now consider the Republicans: Romney lost potential ideologically-conservative votes in Bible-belt states to a former Baptist minister who played up the anti-Mormon angle. But of course he won in Utah. And Montana and Alaska, which he also won, are in the top ten states for Mormon congregations. Arizona is, too, but that's McCain's state. California and New York, which are at the biggest risk, perhaps, from terrorism were won by a Democrat who takes pains not to be seen as weak on Terrorism and a Republican who emphasizes the war on Terror.
Some have concluded that immigration did not end up being such a big issue in the primaries yesterday, but it is interesting to note that I live in California and that every campaign ad for McCain that I heard on the radio talked about immigration and nothing else. So identity mattered the most, local interests came in second, and ideology came in at a distant third.
Crossposted on Soccer Dad
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