Amir Taheri: "How Ahmadinejad is Taking the Americans for a Ride"

The Ayatollah's boasting pronouncements about the upcoming talks should convince anyone that Iran is up to no good. In the present article Amir Taheri fills in some of the internal Iranian political background:

[...] The proposed talks come as a timely booster for Ahmadinejad whose administration is facing a deepening economic crisis. The crisis is in part prompted by widespread fears that his provocative policies may lead to a military confrontation with the United States and its regional allies. Ahmadinejad's opponents within the Khomeinist regime have used those fears as a key theme in their campaign to win control of the Islamic Majlis ( parliament) in the next general election, expected to take place in the spring of 2008.

Ahmadinejad, however, has always claimed that he knows how to "handle" the Americans.

"I know them better than themselves," he boasted just weeks after his election as president. "I have been studying the Americans for more than twenty years."

Ahmadinejad's key campaign theme against his opponents within the system is simple: people like former Presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami underestimated the power of the Islamic Revolution and underestimated the power of the United States. Thus, they were prepared to offer concessions that were never necessary.

They key example that Ahmadinejad cites is Khatami's decision to accept a suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment program as part of a deal with the European Union. Ahmadinejad has resumed the program without provoking the much-dreaded American military retaliation.

Ahmadinejad believes that the only power with the potential to prevent the Islamic Republic from achieving is strategic goals is the United States. At the same time, he believes that the US is so plagued by its internecine political rivalries that it in no position to project the degree of power necessary to stop the Khomeinist advance. The best strategy for the Islamic Republic, therefore, is to talk to the US but continue doing exactly as it pleases.

The Baghdad talks will not produce any positive results either for Iraq or the United States. But they could help Ahmadinejad outflank his domestic opponents ahead of next year's elections. His message is clear: the Bush administration refused to talk to Khatami whose administration had adopted a conciliatory posture, but is now courting a genuinely revolutionary regime in Tehran. Conclusion: the US talks only to those prepared to kick it in the teeth!

You just "read the rest." Read what led up to it.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad

Tags: Iran, Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah, Iraq