Daily Star: "Bashar Assad need not stay in the club of life-long autocrats"

Wishful thinking:

This Sunday's referendum on a second seven-year term for Syrian President Bashar Assad is hard to judge through the lens of normal politics and governance. The idea that the result could be anything other than overwhelming support is not of this world, and certainly not of this Arab region with its modern legacy of presidents for life. In another two years, the Libyan leader will have ruled for 40 years. Rarely has the world known such a phenomenon as this eternal rule of republican leaders, other than in ancient empires and modern monarchies that have their own forms of legitimacy. For Bashar Assad to slip into this dwindling club of life-long autocrats is a shame, because he does not need to go through such performances of wild adulation. He as a leader and his country as a whole have the assets required to do that which has never been done by an Arab leader: Foster genuine legitimacy and enthusiastic popular support at home, and play a powerful role regionally and internationally, by pursuing policies that achieve win-win situations for all concerned.

Syria feels strong and safe right now, but this is not necessarily a correct perception. The country elicits significant opposition and some active pressures and sanctions from its neighbors and powerful countries around the world. Its core assumptions - that the US will keep making mistakes in the region, and that alternatives to the ruling Assad dynasty are not attractive to anyone - are short-term good bets, but long-term losers. The trend all around the world is toward stability anchored in economic prosperity, good governance and the rule of law. Syria makes gestures of acknowledgement to the global economy, but little else of substance.

Syria has the opportunity - still - to break away from the path of the hard rulers for life, by building on its tremendous assets of human wealth, natural resources, strategic geography and many positive political cards to play in the region. Assad can open the political space in his country, generate a more inclusive and accountable system of governance, tap the talents and creativity of his people, and get out of the trap of being permanently at odds with most of his neighbors and global interlocutors. He hinted that he would do this when he came to power seven years ago, but never did. Term number two is a chance to reconsider the options he still has in that respect.

Don't hold your breath.

Tags: Syria, Assad