[...] Right now, the new status quo as shaped by last summer's war between Israel and Hezbollah is under threat in Lebanon. The Islamic Republic in Iran and Syria are determined to break Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government and transform Lebanon into a gun pointed at Israel. [...]Read the rest.
The status quo is also under threat in the Palestinian territories where what looks like a bourgeoning civil war is already under way at least in Gaza. The Islamic Republic and Syria have joined forces with the international Salafist movement of which Hamas is a part to make sure it does not lose the coming civil war. At the other end of the spectrum, Israel is unlikely to sit back and see Al Fatah, its possible interlocutors in any future peace talks, destroyed by Hamas. [...]
The current avalanche of material about the Six Days War of 1967 has paid little attention to the fact that it came after a long period of proxy war waged by Egypt against Israel through Palestinian armed groups. Although the actual 1967 war was provoked by Egypt's President Jamal Abdul Nasser, possibly egged on by his Soviet allies who hoped to destroy the Israeli nuclear program, it is unlikely that the Jewish state would have tolerated the proxy war waged against it for long before turning into a larger conflict.
The question today is how long it would take before Israel decides that the cost of a long proxy war against it far outweighs that of a broader but shorter war against those who pull the strings from Damascus and ultimately Tehran.
A few weeks ago, there was much talk in Israel of a possible return to peace talks with Syria. Some Israel strategists were even deluding themselves with the theory that Syria would walk away from its Iranian allies in exchange for the prospect of recovering the Golan Heights.
Now, however, almost no one in Israel shares such illusions. Hence, the recent string of statements by Israeli military and political officials about the Jewish state's readiness to take military action against Syria. [...]
Neither Tehran nor Damascus appears to have thought of an alternative in case their current policy of waging proxy becomes too risky. Last week, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of the Islamic Republic made this clear by asserting that the "countdown for the destruction of Israel" had begun with the proxy wars waged against it from Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. There is some evidence that at least part of the Syrian leadership shares Ahmadinejad's illusion.
The problem for those who depend on proxy wars as an instrument of strategy is that, at some point, they may lose control. Like all wars, proxy wars develop their own internal dynamics and, because history is never written in advance, no one, not even those who unleash them in the first place, can set their full course at will.
The overall regional picture becomes even grimmer when one takes into account the proxy wars that the Islamic Republic is waging in Iraq, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Pakistan and, more recently, even Turkey, sometimes with Syria as its Man Friday.
Will the Middle East have another summer war soon? It is hard to say. One thing, however, is certain: the situation in the region has reached a degree of dangerous instability that it might not last to the end of the year.
Crossposted on Soccer Dad
No comments:
Post a Comment