[...] First, the plan has a delusional element to it because it is not based on a realistic assessment of the situation. The main base of support for Ahmadinejad’s team was always the supreme leader’s absolute support, which no longer exists. Obviously, a significant portion of Ahmadinejad’s base of support will abandon him with the supreme leader. He must thus be able to attract new bases of support, outside the regime’s usual base.Read the rest.
Further, some of Ahmadinejad’s supporters backed him on because he was in power. History shows that many senior figures in the Islamic Republic have switched sides whenever their side was in a weaker position. If Ahmadinejad severs his relationship with the supreme leader, many of his supporters will abandon him.
Ahmadinejad’s only option now is to break the regime’s internal deadlock by attracting the support of the silent majority. But this quest faces serious obstacles. [...]
Saturday, May 07, 2011
Rooz: Ahmadinejad "delusional"
If you want some analysis of the current stand-off between Mr. Supreme Leader and Ahmadinejad, this looks useful. A, according to this writer, does not have much in the way of prospects: