Amir Taheri: "It's a War, Stupid!"

This is a must-read. Here is Taheri on the "cut-and-run" and "talk-to-the-Mullahs" options:

[...] When you run away, you need somewhere to run to on your way home. The US-led coalition has some 160,000 troops in Iraq backed by a vast network of logistics and a string of bases that cannot be dismantled overnight. Even with the expositional abilities of the US military, it took General Tommy Frank almost eight months to build up the force that invaded Iraq in March 2003. Most military analysts agree that it would take at least three times longer to wind down the coalition's military presence in Iraq, provided Kuwait, Jordan and Turkey agree to help.

But why should they when it is obvious that if the Americans run away before new Iraq can stand on its feet, Iraq will either plunge into civil war or fall under a Baath-Al Qaeda regime that would be deadly for all its neighbors?

All in all, therefore, the cut-and-run option and its whistle-and-walk-away variation are non-starters if only because there is no one to whom the US can surrender. And, if there was going to be a regime capable of holding Iraq together, then why not try and make sure it is a friend of the US?

The second a la mode solution circulating in Washington is the "talk- to- the- mullahs" scenario that also comes in different versions.

There is nothing wrong in talking to the mullahs or anyone else for that matter. But the fact is that Tehran today cannot give the US what it needs in Iraq. The most that the mullahs can is to stop making mischief in the Shiite provinces, by curbing Muqtada Al Sadr, their wild card in Iraq. However, the mullahs have no control over either the Saddamite bitter-enders or Al Qaeda terrorists.

Some advocates of the "talk –to-the-mullahs" option hope that the Islamic Republic might send troops to defeat the Saddamites and Al Qaeda once the Americans begin to leave. But imagine a Persian army entering Iraq! Would it be pouring water on fire or adding fuel? One reason why some Iraqi Arab Sunnis, and many of their brethren throughout the Middle East, are not prepared to back the US coalition is their fear that Washington might have a secret plan to hand Iraq over to the mullahs through pro-Iranian Shi'ite politicians in Baghdad.

With the American election over, it may be possible to have a genuine debate about Iraq, starting by a definition of the problem before "elegant solutions" are offered. [...]

Tags: Iran, Iraq, Sunnis, Shi'ites, Iraq War, cut-and-run